Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
